Modelling population dynamics, health system, and unmet need toward health burden: scenarios in ASEAN and WHO SEARO countries

We are delighted to share our new publication in the Journal of Global Health: Modelling population dynamics, health system, and unmet need toward health burden: scenarios in ASEAN and WHO SEARO countries.  We explored how demographic and migration pressures, health system capacity, and universal health coverage (UHC) interact to shape health burdens across Southeast Asia. Our findings highlight that UHC directly reduces health burden, while migration and system capacity strengthen UHC expansion, and demographic pressures remain a challenge. Using scenario‑based forecasting, we project moderate reductions in health burden by 2030 and greater declines by 2050, particularly in countries with strong and well‑structured health systems. This study provides a reproducible framework for monitoring sociodemographic pressures and guiding long‑term health planning in the region.

Read the full article in Journal of Global Health: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42318780/